Practical reliability analysis of slope stability by advanced Monte Carlo simulations in a spreadsheet
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A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame — the usual design — would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.
Machine scores (provisional)
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
- Teacher spread
- 0.228 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
- Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline· verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
Abstract
This paper develops a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)-based reliability analysis approach for slope stability problems and utilizes an advanced MCS method called “subset simulation” for improving efficiency and resolution of the MCS at relatively small probability levels. Reliability analysis is operationally decoupled from deterministic slope stability analysis and implemented using a commonly available spreadsheet software, Microsoft Excel. The reliability analysis spreadsheet package is validated through comparison with other reliability analysis methods and commercial software. The spreadsheet package is then used to explore the effect of spatial variability of the soil properties and critical slip surface. It is found that, when spatial variability of soil properties is ignored by assuming perfect correlation, the variance of the factor of safety (FS) is overestimated, which may result in either over (conservative) or under (unconservative) estimation of the probability of failure (P f = P(FS < 1)). When the spatial variability of soil properties is considered, the critical slip surface varies spatially and such spatial variability should be properly accounted for. Otherwise, the probability of failure can be significantly underestimated and unconservative.
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The record
- Venue
- Canadian Geotechnical Journal
- Topic
- Geotechnical Engineering and Analysis
- Field
- Engineering
- Canadian institutions
- —
- Funders
- —
- Keywords
- Monte Carlo methodReliability (semiconductor)Slope stabilityFactor of safetySlip (aerodynamics)Slope stability analysisReliability engineeringStability (learning theory)Geotechnical engineeringSoftwareComputer scienceStatisticsEngineeringMathematics
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes