Oil Prices, Scarcity, and Geographies of War
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Many commentators warn that oil scarcity increases the likelihood of war; we question this simplistic concept of scarcity-driven wars. Questioning the relationship between violence, scarcity, and oil begins from reconsidering the causal relationship between high prices and war: Wars can arise in the context of low prices, and the oil-related dimensions of conflicts that occur in the context of high oil prices cannot be solely reduced to struggles over dwindling resources. Based on a succinct review of recent studies, a discussion of major hypotheses, and a brief case study of Sudan, we suggest that scarcity is in part a narrative constructed for and through prices. Power relations resulting in massive financial windfalls mediate this narrative and its selective geographies of war and peace. We outline several hypotheses, and—drawing on critical geopolitics and political ecology—explore avenues for further studies incorporating spatially disaggregated analyses.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it