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Record W2090217075 · doi:10.1145/1281192.1281307

Machine learning for stock selection

2007· article· en· W2090217075 on OpenAlexaff
Robert Yan, Charles X. Ling

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicStock Market Forecasting Methods
Canadian institutionsWestern University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPortfolioStock (firearms)EconometricsComputer scienceProfit (economics)Expected returnRanking (information retrieval)Artificial intelligenceMachine learningEconomicsFinancial economicsEngineeringMicroeconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

In this paper, we propose a new method called Prototype Ranking (PR) designed for the stock selection problem. PR takes into account the huge size of real-world stock data and applies a modified competitive learning technique to predict the ranks of stocks. The primary target of PR is to select the top performing stocks among many ordinary stocks. PR is designed to perform the learning and testing in a noisy stocks sample set where the top performing stocks are usually the minority. The performance of PR is evaluated by a trading simulation of the real stock data. Each week the stocks with the highest predicted ranks are chosen to construct a portfolio. In the period of 1978-2004, PR's portfolio earns a much higher average return as well as a higher risk-adjusted return than Cooper's method, which shows that the PR method leads to a clear profit improvement.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.007
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.003
Threshold uncertainty score0.015

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.007
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0020.001
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.166
GPT teacher head0.455
Teacher spread0.289 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations14
Published2007
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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