MULTIVARIATE AUTOREGRESSION OF ORDER ONE WITH INFINITE VARIANCE INNOVATIONS
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We consider the limiting behavior of a vector autoregressive model of order one (VAR(1)) with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) innovations vector with dependent components in the domain of attraction of a multivariate stable law with possibly different indices of stability. It is shown that in some cases the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates are inconsistent. This inconsistency basically originates from the fact that each coordinate of the partial sum processes of dependent i.i.d. vectors of innovations in the domain of attraction of stable laws needs a different normalizer to converge to a limiting process. It is also revealed that certain M -estimates, with some regularity conditions, as an appropriate alternative, not only resolve inconsistency of the OLS estimates but also give higher consistency rates in all cases.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it