Currency Derivatives Pricing for Markov-Modulated Merton Jump-Diffusion Spot Forex Rate
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We derive results similar to Bo et al. (2010), but in the case of dynamics of the FX rate driven by a general Merton jump-diffusion process. The main results of our paper are as follows: 1) formulas for the Esscher transform parameters which ensure that the martingale condition for the discounted foreign exchange rate is a martingale for a general Merton jump-diffusion process are derived; using the values of these parameters we proceed to a risk-neural measure and provide new formulas for the distribution of jumps, the mean jump size, and the Poisson Process intensity with respect to the measure; pricing formulas for European foreign exchange call options have been given as well; 2) obtained formulas are applied to the case of the exponential processes; 3) numerical simulations of European call foreign exchange option prices for different parameters are also provided.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it