Epidemic propagation of west nile virus using a multi-agent geo-simulation under various short-term climate scenarios
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper we show how multi-agent geo-simulation can provide a useful approach to simulate the propagation of epidemics and to support intervention strategies. Using such an approach we developed a system that can plausibly simulate the interactions of mosquitoes (Culex sp.) and birds (American Crows) in the context of the spread and transmission of the West Nile virus (WNV). This simulation takes place in a geo-referenced virtual environment representing a large territory (Southern part of Quebec) in which a user can explore various climate change scenarios and the effects of different measures to control the disease vectors such as the spreading of larvicides. The paper shows how we simulated the spatio-temporal interactions of large populations of mosquitoes and crows and took advantage of a mathematical compartment model simulating the populations' dynamics. We developed an operational prototype and calibrated it. This system can be used to support short term decision-making related to WNV vector control measures.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it