Bibliographic record
Abstract
Varying-coefficient linear models arise from multivariate nonparametric regression, nonlinear time series modelling and forecasting, functional data analysis, longitudinal data analysis, and others. It has been a common practice to assume that the vary-coefficients are functions of a given variable which is often called an index. A frequently asked question is which variable should be used as the index. In this paper, we explore the class of the varying-coefficient linear models in which the index is unknown and is estimated as a linear combination of regression and/or other variables. This will enlarge the modelling capacity substantially. We search for the index such that the derived varying-coefficient model provides the best approximation to the underlying unknown multi-dimensional regression function in the least square sense. The search is implemented through the newly proposed hybrid backfitting algorithm. The core of the algorithm is the alternative iteration between estimating the index through a one-step scheme and estimating coefficient functions through a one-dimensional local linear smoothing. The generalised cross-validation method for choosing bandwidth is efficiently incorporated into the algorithm. The locally significant variables are selected in terms of the combined use of t-statistic and Akaike information criterion. We further extend the algorithm for the models with two indices. Simulation shows that the proposed methodology has appreciable flexibility to model complex multivariate nonlinear structure and is practically feasible with average modern computers. The methods are further illustrated through the Canadian mink-muskrat data in 1925-1994 and the pound/dollar exchange rates in 1974-1983.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".