Using genetic algorithms to limit the optimism in time warp
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
It is well known that controlling the optimism in Time Warp is central to its success. To date, this problem has been approached by constructing a heuristic model of Time Warp's behavior and optimizing the models' performance. The extent to which the model actually reflects reality is therefore central to its ability to control Time Warp's behavior. In contrast to those approaches, using genetic algorithms avoids the need to construct models of Time Warp's behavior. We demonstrate, in this paper, how the choice of a time window for Time Warp can be transformed into a search problem, and how a genetic algorithm can be utilized to search for the optimal value of the window. An important quality of genetic algorithms is that they can start a search with a random choice for the values of the parameter(s) which they are trying to optimize and produce high quality solutions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it