Risk of development of diabetes mellitus after diagnosis of gestational diabetes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: It is generally appreciated that gestational diabetes is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes. However, the precise relation between these 2 conditions remains unknown. We sought to determine the incidence of diabetes mellitus after diagnosis of gestational diabetes. METHODS: We used a population-based database to identify all deliveries in the province of Ontario over the 7-year period from Apr. 1, 1995, to Mar. 31, 2002. We linked these births to mothers who had been given a diagnosis of gestational diabetes through another administrative database that records people with diabetes on the basis of either physician service claims or hospital admission records. We examined database records for these women from the time of delivery until Mar. 31, 2004, a total of 9 years. We determined the presence of diabetes mellitus according to a validated administrative database definition for this condition. RESULTS: We identified 659 164 pregnant women who had no pre-existing diabetes. Of these, 21 823 women (3.3%) had a diagnosis of gestational diabetes. The incidence of gestational diabetes rose significantly over the 9-year study period, from 3.2% in 1995 to 3.6% in 2001 (p < 0.001). The probability of diabetes developing after gestational diabetes was 3.7% at 9 months after delivery and 18.9% at 9 years after delivery. After adjustment for age, urban or rural residence, neighbourhood income quintile, whether the woman had a previous pregnancy, whether the woman had hypertension after the index delivery, and primary care level before the index delivery, the most significant risk factor for diabetes was having had gestational diabetes during the index pregnancy (hazard ratio 37.28, 95% confidence interval 34.99-40.88; p < 0.001). Age, urban residence and lower income were also important factors. When analyzed by year of delivery, the rate of development of diabetes was higher among the latest subcohort of women with gestational diabetes (delivery during 1999-2001) than among the earliest subcohort (delivery during 1995 or 1996) (16% by 4.7 years after delivery v. 16% by 9.0 years). INTERPRETATION: In this large population-based study, the rate of development of diabetes after gestational diabetes increased over time and was almost 20% by 9 years. This estimate should be used by clinicians to assist in their counselling of pregnant women and by policy-makers to target these women for screening and prevention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".