A Bayesian inference approach for batch trajectory estimation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
A curve fitting algorithm for batch ship trajectory estimation that employs Bayesian statistical inference for non-parametric regression is presented. It assumes no knowledge about the ship motion model while only assuming standard ship maneuvers. The trajectory is thought to be well represented by a cubic spline with an unknown number of knots in two-dimensional Euclidean plane. The function estimate is determined from positional measurements which are assumed to be received in batches at irregular time intervals. As the measurements are often delivered by different sensors the measurement errors are assumed to be heteroscedastic and correlated. A fully Bayesian approach is adopted by defining the prior distributions on all unknown parameters: the spline coefficients as well as the number and the locations of knots. The quality of the estimator algorithm is evaluated statistically using several simulated scenarios. The results suggest that the algorithm represents efficient methodology for trajectory estimation in maritime surveillance, especially in the absence of prior knowledge of the motion model.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it