Exchange Rate Volatility and Cointegration in Tourism Demand
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study investigates the long-run demand for Australian outbound leisure tourism during the period 1983 (quarter 1) to 1997 (quarter 4) for nine major tourism destinations. The study is unique in an international context by using exchange rate volatility as an explanatory variable, while it is unique in an Australian context by using a composite substitute price variable. The estimation and hypothesis-testing processes are undertaken using both the Johansen and Engle and Granger procedures. The variance of the exchange rate was found to be a significant determinant of long-run tourism demand in 50% of estimates. Real disposable income and substitute prices were found to have inelastic long-run effects on tourism, while the long-run relative price elasticity tended to differ widely across countries. Indonesia was the only country to find that the exchange rate has a significantly different impact on tourism than relative prices.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it