Reducing Surgical Ward Congestion Through Improved Surgical Scheduling and Uncapacitated Simulation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
High surgical bed occupancy levels often result in heightened staff stress, frequent surgical cancellations, and long surgical wait times. This congestion is in part attributable to surgical scheduling practices, which often focus on the efficient use of operating rooms but ignore resulting downstream bed utilization. This paper describes a transparent and portable approach to improve scheduling practices, which combines a Monte Carlo simulation model and a mixed integer programming (MIP) model. For a specified surgical schedule, the simulation samples from historical case records and predicts bed requirements assuming no resource constraints. The MIP model complements the simulation model by scheduling both surgeon blocks and patient types to reduce peak bed occupancies. Scheduling guidelines were developed from the optimized schedules to provide surgical planners with a simple and implementable alternative to the MIP model. This approach has been tested and delivered to planners in a health authority in British Columbia, Canada. The models have been used to propose new surgical schedules and to evaluate the impact of proposed system changes on ward congestion.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".