Understanding the impact of code and process metrics on post-release defects
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Research studying the quality of software applications continues to grow rapidly with researchers building regression models that combine a large number of metrics. However, these models are hard to deploy in practice due to the cost associated with collecting all the needed metrics, the complexity of the models and the black box nature of the models. For example, techniques such as PCA merge a large number of metrics into composite metrics that are no longer easy to explain. In this paper, we use a statistical approach recently proposed by Cataldo et al. to create explainable regression models. A case study on the Eclipse open source project shows that only 4 out of the 34 code and process metrics impacts the likelihood of finding a post-release defect. In addition, our approach is able to quantify the impact of these metrics on the likelihood of finding post-release defects. Finally, we demonstrate that our simple models achieve comparable performance over more complex PCA-based models while providing practitioners with intuitive explanations for its predictions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.083 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".