Modified Echelon (<i>r, Q</i>) Policies with Guaranteed Performance Bounds for Stochastic Serial Inventory Systems
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We consider the classic continuous-review Nstage serial inventory system with a homogeneous Poisson demand arrival process at the most downstream stage (Stage 1). Any shipment to each stage, regardless of its size, incurs a positive fixed setup cost and takes a positive constant lead time. The optimal policy for this system under the long-run average cost criterion is unknown. Finding a good worst-case performance guarantee remains an open problem. We tackle this problem by introducing a class of modified echelon (r, Q) policies that do not require Q i + 1 /Q i to be a positive integer: Stage i + 1 ships to Stage i based on its observation of the echelon inventory position at Stage i; if it is at or below r i and Stage i + 1 has positive on-hand inventory, then a shipment is sent to Stage i to raise its echelon inventory position to r i + Q i as close as possible. We construct a heuristic policy within this class of policies, which has the following features: First, it has provably primitive-dependent performance bounds. In a two-stage system, the performance of the heuristic policy is guaranteed to be within (1 + K 1 /K 2 ) times the optimal cost, where K 1 is the downstream fixed cost and K 2 is the upstream fixed cost. We also provide an alternative performance bound, which depends on efficiently computable optimal (r, Q) solutions to N single-stage systems but tends to be tighter. Second, the heuristic is simple, it is efficiently computable and it performs well numerically; it is even likely to outperform the optimal integer-ratio echelon (r,Q) policies when K 1 is dominated by K 2 . Third, the heuristic is asymptotically optimal when we take some dominant relationships between the setup or holding cost primitives at an upstream stage and its immediate downstream stage to the extreme, for example, when h 2 /h 1 → 0, where h 1 is the downstream holding cost parameter and h 2 is the upstream holding cost parameter.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it