Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century
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Abstract
This paper uses historical fluctuations in temperature within countries to identify its effects on aggregate economic outcomes. We find three primary results. First, higher temperatures substantially reduce economic growth in poor countries. Second, higher temperatures may reduce growth rates, not just the level of output. Third, higher temperatures have wide-ranging effects, reducing agricultural output, industrial output, and political stability. These findings inform debates over climate's role in economic development and suggest the possibility of substantial negative impacts of higher temperatures on poor countries. (JEL E23, O13, Q54, Q56)
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The record
- Venue
- American Economic Journal Macroeconomics
- Topic
- Culture, Economy, and Development Studies
- Field
- Social Sciences
- Canadian institutions
- Kellogg's (Canada)
- Funders
- —
- Keywords
- EconomicsPoliticsAgricultureClimate changeDevelopment economicsNatural resource economicsMonetary economicsPolitical scienceGeography
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes