Bibliographic record
Abstract
DEMOGRAPHICS | ECONOMICS | ENVIRONMENT | GLOBAL EDUCATION | LEARNING | POLITICS | TECHNOLOGY The lack of a substantial increase in employment continues to affect higher education in the US and around the globe. Even the brightest economic predictions see only modest gains, and again the promise of 'it's never going back the way it was'. Some higher education givens erode - tenure for one. Some schools are so overwhelmed with students that little else can be done but cope. Distance education has proven more effective for students than face-to-face. Is online education mostly an expansion of access and not a zero sum game, as many have assumed? Our overriding question is whether the series of incremental changes we've seen in the last 1 5 or so years will finally cause a paradigm shift in the way higher education conceptualizes itself. Note: Due to the time sensitive nature of some URL·, we cannot guarantee that all links utiU be active. Some links may require a subscription. DEMOGRAPHICS Observation In the past, demographics were destiny for higher education - if birthrates increased, then enrollment could be predicted to increase 18 years later. The global market for education has done more than simply provide nuances to that predictability; it's made global demographics and economics a driver everywhere. * The result of China's family-planning policy has consequences for its long-term economic viability. The number of people between 20 and 24 will drop by one-fourth in the next decade and by 2050 there will be only 2. 1 working-age adults for each retiree (China Daily eClips, www.cdeclips.com/en/opinion/fullstory.htmliid-28044). * During the last decade, the number of American students at Canadian universities more than doubled to nearly 10,000. They now represent the second-largest group of international students in Canada, after China (Philadelphia Inquirer, September 28, 2009, www.phUly.conT/inquirer/local/20090928_More_U_S_students_picking_Canadian_ universities.html?viewAll=yc Globe and Mail, May 18, 2009, vl.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/stoiy/ RTGAM.200905 18.wrecruitingl 8art2234/BNStory/National/home). * The estimate of the number of students studying outside their nation of origin for 2009-2010 is close to 3 million, with an estimated value to receiving countries of US$60 billion (University World Netos, September 27, 2009, Issue 0094, www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20090925022811395). Our Thoughts The dominance of English-speaking tertiary providers, the US, Australia, and the UK, is no longer assured when students seek a portable, prestigious degree. * The US share of world college students dropped from 29 percent in 1970 to about 12 percent in 2006 (Inside HigherEd, October 6, 2009, www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/10/05/global). * More than 8 percent of the total income of UK universities comes from overseas students' fees (The Guardian, October 14, 2009, www.guardian.co.uk/education/2009/oct/l4/international-students-pay-20000). But the UK may lose a significant number of them due to a serious visa backlog that has resulted in over 14,000 Pakistani students alone being barred (The Guardian, October 14, 2009, www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/oct/l4/overseas-students-fees-visas). * The US issued 25 percent fewer visas to Indians for study at US institutions this year. Although the drop is attributed to the economic slowdown and a drop in aid from US colleges, it may be more permanent than some wish (The Economic Times, October 11, 2009, /economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5111035.cms). Observation The economy is likely to have a long-term effect on enrollments. The mix of students will remain in flux and differ among publics, privates, and for-profit institutions. The job-less recovery is predicted to continue for at least five years (The New York Times, October 2, 2009, www. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.010 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.072 | 0.028 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".