An estimate of the terrestrial influx of large meteoroids from infrasonic measurements
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The influx rate of meteoroids hitting the Earth is most uncertain at sizes of ∼10 m. Here we make use of historical data of large bolides recorded infrasonically over a period of 13 years by the U.S. Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) to refine the terrestrial influx rate at these sizes. Several independent techniques were applied to these airwave data to calculate bolide kinetic energies. At low energies our flux results are within a factor of two in agreement with previous estimates. For 5–20‐m diameter objects, however, our measurements of the cumulative number of Earth‐impacting meteoroids are as much as an order of magnitude higher than estimates from telescopic surveys of near‐Earth objects and satellite‐detected bolides impacting the Earth. The precise cause of this disagreement is unclear, though we propose several possible explanations. From our infrasound study, our best estimate for the cumulative annual flux of impactors with energy equal to or greater than E (in kilotons of TNT equivalent) is N = 4.5 E −0.6 .
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it