Evidence of Sea Level Acceleration at U.S. and Canadian Tide Stations, Atlantic Coast, North America
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Boon, J.D., 2012. Evidence of sea level acceleration at U.S. and Canadian tide stations, Atlantic Coast, North America.Evidence of statistically significant acceleration in sea level rise relative to land is found in a recent analysis of monthly mean sea level (mmsl) at tide stations on the Atlantic coast of North America. Serial trend analysis was used at 11 U.S. Atlantic coast stations and 1 Canadian station (Halifax, Nova Scotia) with record lengths exceeding 75 years to examine change in the linear trend rate of rise over time. Deriving trend estimates that apply in the median year of fixed-length mmsl series, reversals in rate direction (increasing or decreasing) were observed around 1939–40 and again in the mid-1960s except at the northeasternmost stations in the latter period. What has not been observed until recently is a sharp reversal (in 1987) followed by a uniform, near-linear change in rise rate that infers constant acceleration at eight mid- to NE Atlantic tide stations, change not seen at SE U.S. Atlantic stations. Quadratic regression and analysis of variance applied to mmsl series over the last 43 years (1969–2011) confirms that addition of a quadratic term representing acceleration is statistically significant at 16 tide stations from Virginia to Nova Scotia. Previous quadratic model studies have focused on sea level series of longer spanning periods with variable serial trends undermining quadratic expression of either accelerating or decelerating sea level. Although the present 43-year analysis offers no proof that acceleration will be long lived, the rapidity of the nascent serial trend increase within the region of interest is unusual. Assuming constant acceleration exists and continues, the regression model projects mmsl by 2050 varying between 0.2 and 0.9 m above mean sea level (MSL) in the NE region and between −0.3 and 0.4 m above MSL in the SE region.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it