Recent warming in a 500-year palaeotemperature record from varved sediments, Upper Soper Lake, Baffin Island, Canada
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Laminated sediments from Upper Soper Lake on southern Baffin Island provide a new 500-year record of temperature change in the Arctic. Radiometric dating, using 210 Pb and Pu, shows that the light-and dark-coloured laminae couplets are annually deposited varves. Dark laminae thickness is strongly correlated to average June temperature from Kimmirut (r = 0.82), reflecting the influence of temperature on snowmelt and fluxes of runoff and suspended sediment. This relationship allowed the construction of a palaeotemperature record that documents large-amplitude interannual to decadal variability superimposed on distinct century-scale trends, including 2°C average warming and maximum temperatures during the 1900s. Similar patterns of change are seen in individual and regionally averaged palaeotemperature records from around the circum-Arctic. Upper Soper Lake records temperatures, rates of change and variance during the twentieth century that are all anomalously high within the context of the last 500 years, and outside the observed range of natural variability. Comparisons of Upper Soper Lake and Arctic average palaeotemperature to proxy-records of hypothesized forcing mechanisms suggest that the recent warming trend is mostly due to anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The magnitude of the warming and decade-scale variability throughout the records, however, indicate that natural forcing mechanisms such as changing solar irradiance and volcanic activity, as well as positive feedbacks within the Arctic environment, also play an important role.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.052 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it