Diluting the founder effect: cryptic invasions expand a marine invader's range
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Most invasion histories include an estimated arrival time, followed by range expansion. Yet, such linear progression may not tell the entire story. The European green crab (Carcinus maenas) was first recorded in the US in 1817, followed by an episodic expansion of range to the north. Its population has recently exploded in the Canadian Maritimes. Although it has been suggested that this northern expansion is the result of warming sea temperatures or cold-water adaptation, Canadian populations have higher genetic diversity than southern populations, indicating that multiple introductions have occurred in the Maritimes since the 1980s. These new genetic lineages, probably from the northern end of the green crab's native range in Europe, persist in areas that were once thought to be too cold for the original southern invasion front. It is well established that ballast water can contain a wide array of nonindigenous species. Ballast discharge can also deliver genetic variation on a level comparable to that of native populations. Such gene flow not only increases the likelihood of persistence of invasive species, but it can also rapidly expand the range of long-established nonindigenous species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.057 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".