How Transnational Factors Influence the Success of Ethnic, Religious and Regional Parties in 21 States
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article explores whether ethnic, religious and regional parties in 21 advanced capitalist democracies are more likely to achieve political salience in systems which have been more exposed to the effects of globalization and post-industrialization. Globalist—localist scholars have argued that the new localism — which encompasses the post-war resurgence of decentralist political movements — is linked to intensified international interdependence and changes in production and consumption modes. Using quasi-likelihood statistical methods, we find that parties catering to particularist interests are more likely to participate in ruling coalitions to support minority governments, or to serve as the official opposition in countries that have been relatively insulated from transnational forces. While domestic economic conditions and a party's lifespan and programmatic orientation also influence the probability for success, domestic institutional arrangements such as electoral systems and the division of powers do not.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it