From the ground up: The challenge of indigenous party consolidation in Latin America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To predict the electoral fate of the new cohort of indigenous-based political parties in Latin America, and the impacts on their respective party systems, we need to understand their prospects for consolidation. The central task of this article is to determine whether indigenous peoples’ parties are developing solid party roots in society or if they are merely benefiting from a protest vote against the system. The study of political party consolidation requires an examination of local level successes and failures. Based on a quantitative analysis of municipal election results in Ecuador (1996—2004) and Bolivia (1999—2004), the author finds mixed support for indigenous party consolidation. Clearly, the governing indigenous-based Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party in Bolivia has solidified its base of support. Ecuador’s indigenous-based Pachakutik (MUPP) party, however, has lost its support at the national level, though it continues to make impressive gains at the local level. As such, it represents a case of incomplete consolidation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".