Structured maximum likelihood autoregressive parameter estimation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
A novel method for the maximum likelihood estimation of autoregressive process parameters is presented. The approach is suited to applications in which the available data vector length is of the same order of magnitude as the autoregressive process model order, and it provides more accurate results than approximate methods that yield the maximum likelihood estimates only in the limit of long data records. The difficult nonlinear optimization problem is approached by first recursively solving for the maximum likelihood estimates of the data covariances subject to certain structural constraints, and then using these estimates in the Yule-Walker equations to obtain the autoregressive process parameter estimates. Experimental results demonstrate the potential of the method for autoregressive process power spectral density estimation using short data records.< <ETX xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">></ETX>
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it