Permafrost temperature records: Indicators of climate change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Permafrost has received much attention recently because surface temperatures are rising in most permafrost areas of the Earth, bringing permafrost to the edge of widespread thawing and degradation. The thawing of permafrost that already occurs at the southern limits of the permafrost zone can generate dramatic changes in ecosystems and in infrastructure performance. In this article, we describe an emerging system for comprehensive monitoring of permafrost temperatures, a system which is needed for timely detection of worldwide changes in permafrost stability, and for predictions of negative consequences of permafrost degradation. Permafrost is rock, sediment, or any other Earth material with a temperature that remains below 0°C for two or more years. Permafrost zones occupy up to 24% of the exposed land area of the Northern Hemisphere (Figure 1) [Zhang et al., 2000]. Permafrost ranges from very cold (temperatures of −10°C and lower) and very thick (more than 500 m and as much as 1400 m) in the Arctic, to warm (within 1 or 2° of the melting point) and thin (several meters or less in thickness) in the sub‐Arctic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".