Variability of Drop Size Distributions: Time-Scale Dependence of the Variability and Its Effects on Rain Estimation
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A systematic and intensive analysis is performed on 5 yr of reliable disdrometric data (over 20 000 one-minute drop size distributions, DSDs) to investigate the variability of DSDs in the Montreal, Quebec, Canada, area. The scale dependence (climatological scale, day to day, within a day, between physical processes, and within a physical process) of the DSD variability and its effect on rainfall intensity R estimation from radar reflectivity Z are explored in terms of bias and random errors. Detail error distributions are also provided. The use of a climatological R–Z relationship for rainfall—affected by all of the DSDs’ variability—leads on average to a random error of 41% in instantaneous rain-rate estimation. This error decreases with integration time, but the decrease becomes less pronounced for integration times longer than 2 h. Daily accumulations computed with the climatological R–Z relationship have a bias of 28% because of the day-to-day DSD variability. However, when daily R–Z relationships are used, a random error of 32% in instantaneous rain rate is still present because of the DSD variability within a day. This illustrates that most of the variability of DSDs has its origin within a storm or between storms within a day. Physical processes leading to the formation of DSDs are then classified according to the vertical structure of radar data as measured by a UHF profiler collocated with the disdrometer. The DSD variability among different physical processes is larger than the day-to-day variability. A bias of 41% in rain accumulations is due to the DSD variability between physical processes. Accurate rain-rate estimation (∼7%) can be achieved only after the proper underlying physical process is identified and the associated R–Z relationship is used.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it