Taking the aggravation out of data aggregation: A conceptual guide to dealing with statistical issues related to the pooling of individual‐level observational data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Field data often include multiple observations taken from the same individual. In order to avoid pseudoreplication, it is commonplace to aggregate data, generating a mean score per individual, and then using these aggregated data in subsequent analyses. Aggregation, however, can generate problems of its own. Not only does it lead to a loss of information, it can also leave analyses vulnerable to the "ecological fallacy": the drawing of false inferences about individual behavior on the basis of population level ("ecological") data. It can also result in Simpson's paradox, where relationships seen at the individual level can be completely reversed when analyzed at the aggregate level. These phenomena have been documented widely in the medical and social sciences but tend to go unremarked in primatological studies that rely on observational data from the field. Here, we provide a conceptual guide that explains how and why aggregate data are vulnerable to the ecological fallacy and Simpson's paradox, illustrating these points using data on baboons. We then discuss one particular analytical approach, namely multi-level modeling, that can potentially eliminate these problems. By highlighting the issue of the ecological fallacy, and increasing awareness of how datasets are often organized into a number of different levels, we also highlight the manner in which researchers can more positively exploit the structure of their datasets, without any information loss. These analytical approaches may thus provide greater insight into behavior by permitting more thorough investigation of interactions and cross-level effects.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.112 | 0.131 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.011 | 0.015 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.038 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.011 | 0.019 |
| Open science | 0.014 | 0.010 |
| Research integrity | 0.009 | 0.018 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".