A Model of Search Intermediaries and Paid Referrals
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper we pursue three main objectives: (1) to develop a model of an intermediated search market in which matching between consumers and firms takes place primarily via paid referrals; (2) to address the question of designing a suitable mechanism for selling referrals to firms; and (3) to characterize and analyze the firms' bidding strategies given consumers' equilibrium search behavior. To achieve these objectives we develop a two-stage model of search intermediaries in a vertically differentiated product market. In the first stage an intermediary chooses a search engine design that specifies to which extent a firm's search rank is determined by its bid and to which extent it is determined by the product offering's performance. In the second stage, based on the search engine design, competing firms place their open bids to be paid for each referral by the search engine. We find that the revenue-maximizing search engine design bases rankings on a weighted average of product performance and bid amount. Nonzero pure-strategy equilibria of the underlying discontinuous bidding game generally exist but are not robust with respect to noisy clicks in the system. We determine a unique nondegenerate mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium that is robust to noisy clicks. In this equilibrium firms of low product performance fully dissipate their rents, which are appropriated by the search intermediary and the firm with the better product. The firms' expected bid amounts are generally nonmonotonic in product performance and depend on the search engine design parameter. The intermediary's profit-maximizing design choice, by attributing a positive weight to the firms' bids, tends to obfuscate search results and reduce overall consumer surplus compared to the socially optimal design of fully transparent results ranked purely on product performance.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it