ROBUSTNESS OF PRODUCTIVITY ESTIMATES<sup>*</sup>
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Researchers interested in estimating productivity can choose from an array of methodologies, each with its strengths and weaknesses. We compare the robustness of five widely used techniques, two non‐parametric and three parametric: in order, (a) index numbers, (b) data envelopment analysis (DEA), (c) stochastic frontiers, (d) instrumental variables (GMM) and (e) semiparametric estimation. Using simulated samples of firms, we analyze the sensitivity of alternative methods to the way randomness is introduced in the data generating process. Three experiments are considered, introducing randomness via factor price heterogeneity, measurement error and differences in production technology respectively. When measurement error is small, index numbers are excellent for estimating productivity growth and are among the best for estimating productivity levels. DEA excels when technology is heterogeneous and returns to scale are not constant. When measurement or optimization errors are nonnegligible, parametric approaches are preferred. Ranked by the persistence of the productivity differentials between firms (in decreasing order), one should prefer the stochastic frontiers, GMM, or semiparametric estimation methods. The practical relevance of each experiment for applied researchers is discussed explicitly.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.020 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it