Reactivity Ratio Estimation in Non‐Linear Polymerization Models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques and an Error‐In‐Variables Framework
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Reactivity ratio estimation was carried out in various nonlinear models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique and an error‐in‐variables (EVM) regression model. The implementation steps for three different polymerization case studies are discussed in detail and the results from this work are compared to previously used approximation methods. Approximation techniques that rely on linear regression theory are shown to produce inaccurate joint confidence regions (JCRs). Therefore, in this paper, we explore MCMC techniques that can be used to produce JCRs with correct shape and probability content. In addition, the paper illustrates how an EVM model can be used in tackling any type of regression problem, including multi‐response problems.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it