Statistical Inference and Computational Efficiency for Spatial Infectious Disease Models with Plantation Data
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary The paper considers data from an aphid infestation on a sugar cane plantation and illustrates the use of an individual level infectious disease model for making inference on the biological process underlying these data. The data are interval censored, and the practical issues involved with the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms with models of this sort are explored and developed. As inference for spatial infectious disease models is complex and computationally demanding, emphasis is put on a minimal parsimonious model and speed of code execution. With careful coding we can obtain highly efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms based on a simple random-walk Metropolis-within-Gibbs routine. An assessment of model fit is provided by comparing the predicted numbers of weekly infections from the data to the trajectories of epidemics simulated from the posterior distributions of model parameters. This assessment shows that the data have periods where the epidemic proceeds more slowly and more quickly than the (temporally homogeneous) model predicts.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it