Why Larger Lenders Obtain Higher Returns: Evidence from Sovereign Syndicated Loans
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Lenders who make large funding commitments earn higher rates of return than those who make smaller commitments. We analyze a data set of sovereign syndicated loan contracts to document study and this phenomenon. We show that the “large lenders” in the lending syndicates earn a “return premium,” which is positively affected by the likelihood of future liquidity problems of the borrower. This finding suggests that the onus would be on the large lenders in particular to provide services, such as liquidity insurance and coordinating the workout. The return premium also increases in the fraction of banks among the larger syndicate members, suggesting that banks are special lenders in terms of addressing idiosyncratic liquidity problems.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it