Insurance Claims Modulated by a Hidden Marked Point Process
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recently Markov-modulated compound Poisson models have gained its popularity in modelling insurance claims in the actuarial science literature. A Markov-modulated compound Poisson model can provide a realistic and flexibile way to model aggregate insurance claims by incorporating the impact of hidden states of an economy on claim frequencies and claim sizes. However, in practice, the Markov chain in the model is not observable. It is of practical interest to develop some methods to estimate the hidden state of the Markov chain and other unknown model parameters of the Markov- modulated compound Poisson model. This paper considers this important issue. We shall develop filters and smoothers for the hidden state of the economy underlying the Markov-modulated compound Poisson model. In general, we consider the case when both the stochastic intensity and the distribution of the claim sizes of the compound Poisson process depend on the hidden Markov chain. The filter and smoother provide an optimal way to estimate the insurance claims model in the "mean- squared-error" sense. We shall also develop estimators for the unknown model parameters of the Markov-modulated marked point process using the robust filter-based and smoother-based EM algorithms.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.012 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it