The snowball effect: Friendship moderates escalations in depressed affect among avoidant and excluded children
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
A three-wave longitudinal study conducted with preadolescent boys and girls (N = 231 at Time 1 [T1]) was used to assess the hypotheses that aspects of social withdrawal would be predictors of a "snowball" cascade of depressed affect, and that friendship experiences would moderate these effects. Consistent with these hypotheses, multilevel modeling showed that measures of avoidance and exclusion at T1 were associated with concurrent levels of depressed affect and were antecedent to escalating trajectories of depressed affect over time. These accelerating growth curves fit a snowball cascade model. The analyses also showed the protective effects of friendship. Specifically, the snowball effect was limited to avoidant and excluded children who were friendless. Depressed affect did not increase among avoidant and excluded children who were friended.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it