Kim Jong-il's Successor Dilemmas

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. These three scenarios are sketched in Paul Stares and Joel Wit, “Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea,” Council Special Report, no. 42 (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, January 2009). 2. See Hazel Smith, Hungry for Peace: International Security, Humanitarian Assistance, and Social Change in North Korea (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace, 2005); Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007). 3. For example, to the U.S. funded South Korean services of Radio Free Asia and Voice of America, a newly-established South Korea-based radio station targeting North Korea is Open Radio for North Korea. In addition, the Japan-based Rimjingang magazine has featured reporting from within North Korea by North Korean journalists since 2008 and a newly published Korean-language journal has been organized as a venue for discussion among North Korean refugees with elite backgrounds. In the course of covering North Korea's food situation, the South Korean nongovernmental organization, Good Friends, publishes a regular newsletter that features stories of local-level conditions faced by average North Koreans. 4. See Scott Snyder, “Changes in Seoul's North Korean Policy and Implications for Pyongyang's Inter-Korean Diplomacy” (paper, British Columbia, Canada, June 25–26, 2009) (presented at University of British Columbia conference on North Korea “Emerging Issues of North Korean Foreign Policy”). 5. See Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland, “What To Do About North Korea: Will Sanctions Work?” The Oriental Economist 77, no. 7 (July 2009): 11–12, http://www.orientaleconomist.com/documents/haggard_noland_nkorea.pdf. 6. See Jacques Hymans, The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006). 7. Statement by H.E. Pak Kil Yon, Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chairman of the Delegation of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, UN General Assembly, New York, September 28, 2009, http://www.un.org/ga/64/generaldebate/pdf/KP_en.pdf (press release). 8. The other categories are “sportsmanlike nationalist” (open to cooperation, but still prideful), “sportsmanlike subaltern” (open to cooperation, not prideful), and “oppositional subaltern” (not open to cooperation, but not prideful or nationalistic). 9. See Marcus Noland, North Korea After Kim Jong-il (Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics, January 2004). 10. Smith, Hungry for Peace, pp. 77–100. 11. James B. Steinberg, “Engaging Asia 2009: Strategies for Success,” (speech, National Bureau of Asian Research, Washington, D.C., April 1, 2009), http://www.state.gov/s/d/2009/121564.htm. Steinberg's comments reflect a broad U.S. aspiration and do not address possible U.S. policy directions in the event of a contingency on the Korean peninsula. 12. For a detailed and comprehensive review of the challenges the United States and South Korea will face in managing a contested and/or failed succession process, see See-Won Byun, North Korea Contingency Planning and U.S.–ROK Cooperation (Washington, D.C.: The Asia Foundation, September 2009), http://www.asiafoundation.org/resources/pdfs/DPRKContingencyCUSKP0908.pdf. Additional informationNotes on contributorsScott SnyderScott Snyder is an adjunct senior fellow for Korean Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and director of the Center for U.S.–Korea Policy at The Asia Foundation. The opinions and conclusions of this paper represent the author only, and do not reflect positions of the organizations with which he is affiliated

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