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Record W2140002216

Conditional Beliefs and Higher-Order Preferences

2013· article· en· W2140002216 on OpenAlexaff
Byung Soo Lee

Bibliographic record

VenueMunich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich) · 2013
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicBayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsLexicographical orderPreferenceIterated functionType (biology)Order (exchange)Bayesian probabilityMathematical economicsConditional probabilityMathematicsComputer scienceCombinatoricsEconomicsStatistics
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

In this paper, we provide the Bayesian foundations of type structures--—such as those used for epistemic analysis of iterated admissibility by Brandenburger et al. (2008)--—in which beliefs are LPS’s (lexicographic probability systems) rather than standard probability measures as in Mertens and Zamir (1985). This turns out to be a setting in which the distinction between preference hierarchies (Epstein and Wang, 1996) and belief hierarchies is meaningful and the former has conceptual advantages. In particular, using preference hierarchies allows us to identify conditions under which the distinction between LPS beliefs about types and LCPS (lexicographic conditional probability system) beliefs about types is a meaningful one. Furthermore, we construct “universal” LPS/LCPS type structures and find that they describe the same finite-order preferences even though the universal LPS type structure describes more hierarchies. Finally, we give an epistemic condition for iterated admissibility using coherent hierarchies that cannot be types.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.007
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.020
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.007
Threshold uncertainty score0.035

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0070.020
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.004
Scholarly communication0.0040.010
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0020.004
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0070.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.016
GPT teacher head0.196
Teacher spread0.179 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations4
Published2013
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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Same venueMunich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)Same topicBayesian Modeling and Causal InferenceFrench-language works237,207