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Record W2141990617 · doi:10.1145/2736277.2741080

HypTrails

2015· preprint· en· W2141990617 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldPhysics and Astronomy
TopicComplex Network Analysis Techniques
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersSandia National LaboratoriesTélécom ParisIndiana University BloomingtonUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignMicrosoft ResearchUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaJulius-Maximilians-Universität WürzburgUniversität LeipzigPeking UniversityIndian Institute of Technology DelhiUniversità degli Studi di TorinoUniversity of California, Santa BarbaraKorea Advanced Institute of Science and TechnologyTsinghua UniversityTechnische Universität MünchenSapienza Università di RomaUniversity of PittsburghUniversity of New South WalesKU LeuvenAalto-YliopistoUniversity of TwenteUniversiteit van AmsterdamUniversity of Southern CaliforniaPurdue UniversityUniversity College LondonBrigham Young UniversityUniversity of SouthamptonUniversità degli Studi di MilanoYork UniversityTU Graz, Internationale Beziehungen und MobilitätsprogrammeCapital Normal UniversityMcGill UniversityUniversité de FribourgCentre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueDartmouth CollegeUniversity of California, DavisVrije Universiteit AmsterdamStony Brook UniversityJohns Hopkins UniversityKing Abdullah University of Science and TechnologyBaiduMicrosoft Research AsiaUniversità di PisaSouthern Methodist UniversityUniversity of IoanninaCarleton CollegeAix-Marseille UniversitéOhio State UniversityNational University of SingaporeUniversität ZürichCarnegie Mellon UniversityHarvard UniversityUniversity of Oxford
KeywordsComputer sciencePrior probabilityInferenceLeverage (statistics)Machine learningDirichlet distributionProbabilistic logicArtificial intelligenceBayesian probabilityInformation retrievalMathematics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

When users interact with the Web today, they leave sequential digital trails on a massive scale. Examples of such human trails include Web navigation, sequences of online restaurant reviews, or online music play lists. Understanding the factors that drive the production of these trails can be useful for e.g., improving underlying network structures, predicting user clicks or enhancing recommendations. In this work, we present a general approach called HypTrails for comparing a set of hypotheses about human trails on the Web, where hypotheses represent beliefs about transitions between states. Our approach utilizes Markov chain models with Bayesian inference. The main idea is to incorporate hypotheses as informative Dirichlet priors and to leverage the sensitivity of Bayes factors on the prior for comparing hypotheses with each other. For eliciting Dirichlet priors from hypotheses, we present an adaption of the so-called (trial) roulette method. We demonstrate the general mechanics and applicability of HypTrails by performing experiments with (i) synthetic trails for which we control the mechanisms that have produced them and (ii) empirical trails stemming from different domains including website navigation, business reviews and online music played. Our work expands the repertoire of methods available for studying human trails on the Web.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.974
Threshold uncertainty score0.997

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.038
GPT teacher head0.310
Teacher spread0.272 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Quick stats

Citations57
Published2015
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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