Four well-constrained calibration points from the vertebrate fossil record for molecular clock estimates
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent controversy about the use of the vertebrate fossil record for external calibration of molecular clocks centers on two issues, the number of dates used for calibration and the reliability of the fossil calibration date. Viewing matters from a palaeontological perspective, we propose three qualitative, phylogenetic criteria that can be used within a comparative framework for the selection of well-constrained calibration dates from the vertebrate fossil record. On the basis of these criteria, we identify three highly suitable new fossil calibration dates for molecular clock estimates: the lungfish-tetrapod split (between 419 and 408 Ma), the bird-crocodile split (between 251 and 243 Ma), and the alligator-caiman split (between 71 and 66 Ma). Together with our previously suggested bird-lizard split (between 252 and 257 Ma), these four fossil dates span a range of very different ages. They are, in our opinion, more suitable for molecular clock calibration than the traditionally used mammal-bird split, which is less well constrained. We plea for closer interactions between paleontologists and molecular biologists in studying the timescale of vertebrate evolution.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.017 | 0.041 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".