Variable age structure and apparent density dependence in survival of adult ungulates
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Large herbivores have strongly age-structured populations. Because recruitment often decreases as population density increases, in unexploited populations the proportion of older adults may increase with density. Because survival senescence is typical of ungulates, ignoring density-dependent changes in age structure could lead to apparent density-dependence in adult survival. To test for density dependence in adult survival, we used data from three populations that underwent considerable changes in density. Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) on Ram Mountain, Alberta, ranged from 94 to 232, mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) on Caw Ridge, Alberta, varied from 81 to 147, and estimates of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) older than 1 year at Chizé, France, ranged from 157 to 569. We used recent developments of capture-mark-recapture modelling to assess the response of adult survival to changes in density when age structure was and was not taken into account. Survival rates were 10-15% higher during the prime-age stage than during the senescent stage for all sex-species combinations. When adults were pooled into a single age class there was an apparent negative effect of density on female survival in bighorns and roe deer, and negative trends for female mountain goats, male roe deer and male bighorn sheep. When age class was taken into account, there were no significant effects of density on adult survival. Except for male mountain goats, the strength of density dependence was lower when age was taken into account. In ungulate populations, age structure is an important determinant of adult survival. Most reports of density dependence in adult survival may have been confounded by changes in age structure.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".