The response of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to future climate change
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A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame — the usual design — would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.
Machine scores (provisional)
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
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- Teacher spread
- 0.265 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
- Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline· verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it
Abstract
Abstract Future CO2-induced climate change scenarios from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate increasing air temperatures, with the greatest warming in the Arctic and Subarctic. Changes to the wind fields and precipitation patterns are also suggested. These will lead to changes in the hydrographic properties of the ocean, as well as the vertical stratification and circulation patterns. Of particular note is the expected increase in ocean temperature. Based upon the observed responses of cod to temperature variability, the expected responses of cod stocks throughout the North Atlantic to the future temperature scenarios are reviewed and discussed here. Stocks in the Celtic and Irish Seas are expected to disappear under predicted temperature changes by the year 2100, while those in the southern North Sea and Georges Bank will decline. Cod will likely spread northwards along the coasts of Greenland and Labrador, occupy larger areas of the Barents Sea, and may even extend onto some of the continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean. In addition, spawning sites will be established further north than currently. It is likely that spring migrations will occur earlier, and fall returns will be later. There is the distinct possibility that, where seasonal sea ice disappears altogether, cod will cease their migration. Individual growth rates for many of the cod stocks will increase, leading to an overall increase in the total production of Atlantic cod in the North Atlantic. These responses of cod to future climate changes are highly uncertain, however, as they will also depend on the changes to climate and oceanographic variables besides temperature, such as plankton production, the prey and predator fields, and industrial fishing.
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The record
- Venue
- ICES Journal of Marine Science
- Topic
- Marine and fisheries research
- Field
- Environmental Science
- Canadian institutions
- —
- Funders
- —
- Keywords
- GadusAtlantic codOceanographySubarctic climateClimate changeEnvironmental scienceArcticClimatologyHydrographyArctic sea ice declineOceanic climateArctic ice packFisheryGeologyAntarctic sea iceBiology
- Has abstract in OpenAlex
- yes