A Hybrid Intelligent Model for Deterministic and Quantile Regression Approach for Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With rapid increase in wind power penetration into the power grid, wind power forecasting is becoming increasingly important to power system operators and electricity market participants. The majority of the wind forecasting tools available in the literature provide deterministic prediction, but given the variability and uncertainty of wind, such predictions limit the use of the existing tools for decision-making under uncertain conditions. As a result, probabilistic forecasting, which provides information on uncertainty associated with wind power forecasting, is gaining increased attention. This paper presents a novel hybrid intelligent algorithm for deterministic wind power forecasting that utilizes a combination of wavelet transform (WT) and fuzzy ARTMAP (FA) network, which is optimized by using firefly (FF) optimization algorithm. In addition, support vector machine (SVM) classifier is used to minimize the wind power forecast error obtained from WT+FA+FF. The paper also presents a probabilistic wind power forecasting algorithm using quantile regression method. It uses the wind power forecast results obtained from the proposed hybrid deterministic WT+FA+FF+SVM model to evaluate the probabilistic forecasting performance. The performance of the proposed forecasting model is assessed utilizing wind power data from the Cedar Creek wind farm in Colorado.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".