Climate Change, Mean Sea Level and High Tides in the Bay of Fundy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Global warming is predicted to result in a rise in sea level which will lead to increased flood risk. Two other factors that will affect high water are the existing trends in mean sea level and changing tides. We illustrate here that in the Bay of Fundy and Gulf of Maine these two are related. An analysis of long-term sea level records shows that, independent of global warming related to climate change, sea level and tidal range have been increasing in this system. Our numerical model investigation indicates that recent changes in sea level, attributed in part to post-glacial rebound, are giving rise to increasing tides. The combined effects of modern sea level rise, global warming induced sea level rise, and the expanded tidal range they induce, will produce a significant increase in the high water level, much greater than that found when considering modern climate-induced sea level changes in isolation. We are predicting a dramatic increase in the risk of flooding at higher high water during the twenty-first century. RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Le réchauffement climatique devrait entraîner une hausse du niveau de la mer, d'où l'augmentation des risques d'inondation. Mais deux autres facteurs sont à l'origine de cette hausse, soit les tendances actuelles liées au niveau moyen de la mer et au changement dans l'amplitude des marées. Dans notre étude, nous démontrons que ces deux facteurs sont interreliés dans la baie de Fundy et dans le golfe du Maine. L'analyse des relevés du niveau de la mer à long terme démontre que le niveau de la mer et l'amplitude des marées sont en hausse dans ce système, abstraction faite du réchauffement causé par les changements climatiques. L’étude que nous avons effectuée au moyen d'un modèle numérique fait ressortir que les changements survenus récemment dans le niveau de la mer, attribuables en partie au relèvement post-glaciaire, expliquent l'amplitude croissante des marées. L'effet de l’élévation actuelle du niveau de la mer, conjugué à celui de l’élévation du niveau de la mer provoquée par le réchauffement climatique et de l'amplitude croissante des marées que ces deux phénomènes induisent augmenteront considérablement le niveau des hautes eaux, beaucoup plus que ce qu'indiquent les conclusions des études sur les changements du niveau de la mer induits par le climat actuel pris isolément. Nous prévoyons une augmentation importante des risques d'inondation dans des conditions de pleine mer supérieure au cours du XXIe siècle.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".