WAM—The Weighted Average Method for Predicting the Performance of Systems with Bursts of Customer Sessions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Predictive performance models are important tools that support system sizing, capacity planning, and systems management exercises. We introduce the Weighted Average Method (WAM) to improve the accuracy of analytic predictive performance models for systems with bursts of concurrent customers. WAM considers the customer population distribution at a system to reflect the impact of bursts. The WAM approach is robust with respect to distribution functions, including heavy-tail-like distributions, for workload parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of WAM using a case study involving a multitier TPC-W benchmark system. To demonstrate the utility of WAM with multiple performance modeling approaches, we developed both Queuing Network Models and Layered Queuing Models for the system. Results indicate that WAM improves prediction accuracy for bursty workloads for QNMs and LQMs by 10 and 12 percent, respectively, with respect to a Markov Chain approach reported in the literature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".