The Incidence and Risk Factors for Psoriatic Arthritis in Patients With Psoriasis: A Prospective Cohort Study
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in patients with psoriasis, and to identify risk factors for its development. METHODS: The study was designed as a prospective cohort study involving psoriasis patients who did not have a diagnosis of arthritis at the time of study enrollment. Information was collected about lifestyle habits, comorbidities, psoriasis activity, and medications. Patients who developed inflammatory arthritis or spondylitis were classified as having PsA if they fulfilled the criteria of the Classification of Psoriatic Arthritis Study group. The annual incidence of PsA was estimated using an event per person-years analysis. Cox proportional hazards models, involving fixed and time-dependent explanatory variables, were fitted to obtain estimates of the relative risk (RR) of the onset of PsA, determined in multivariate models stratified by sex and controlled for age at onset of psoriasis. RESULTS: The data obtained from the 464 patients who were followed up for 8 years were analyzed. A total of 51 patients developed PsA during the 8 years since enrollment. The annual incidence rate of PsA was 2.7 cases (95% confidence interval 2.1-3.6) per 100 psoriasis patients. The following baseline variables were associated with the development of PsA in multivariate analysis: severe psoriasis (RR 5.4, P = 0.006), low level of education (university/college versus high school incomplete RR 0.22, P = 0.005; high school graduate versus high school incomplete RR 0.30, P = 0.049), and use of retinoid medications (RR 3.4, P = 0.02). In multivariate models with time-dependent variables, psoriatic nail pitting (RR 2.5, P = 0.002) and uveitis (RR 31.5, P = 0.0002) were associated with the development of PsA. CONCLUSION: The incidence of PsA in patients with psoriasis is higher than previously reported. A severe psoriasis phenotype, presence of nail pitting, low level of education, and uveitis are predictive of the development of PsA in patients with psoriasis.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it