Discrete choice, agent based and system dynamics simulation of health profession career paths
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Modelling real workforce choices accurately via Agent Based Models and System Dynamics requires input data on the actual preferences of individual agents. Often lack of data means that analysts can have an understanding of how agents move through the system, but not why, and when. Hybrid models incorporating discrete choice experiments (DCE) solve this. Unlike simplistic neoclassical economic models, DCEs build on 50 years of well-tested consumer theory that decomposes the utility (benefit) derived from the agent's preferred choice into that associated with its constituent parts, but also allows agents different degrees of certainty in their discrete choices (heteroscedasticity on the latent scale). We use DCE data in populating a System Dynamics/Agent Based Model -- one of choices of optometrists and their employers. It shows that low overall predictive power conceals heterogeneity in agents' preferences. Incorporating such preferences in our hybrid approach improves the model's explanatory power and accuracy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".