Intelligent decision support in medicine: back to Bayes?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Decision Support Systems are proliferating rapidly in many areas of human endeavour including clinical medicine and psychology. While these are typically based on rule-based systems, decision trees, or Artificial Neural Networks, this paper argues that Bayes' Theorem can be applied fruitfully to support expert decisions both in dynamically changing situations requiring the system progressively to adapt, and when this is not the case. One example of each of these two types is given. One provides diagnostic support for human decision makers; the other, an e-health mental intervention system provides decision rules enabling it to respond and provide the most appropriate training modules to input from clients with changing needs. The contributions of psychological research underlying both systems is summarized.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.017 | 0.060 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.012 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.014 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.006 | 0.009 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".