The Natural History of Neighborhood Violence
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Few studies have applied life course methods to understand the natural history of crime rates in neighborhoods or other small social areas. Recent research on neighborhood effects has produced evidence of small area variations in child development and maltreatment, teenage sexual behavior and childbearing, school dropout, home ownership, several indicia of health, suicide, drug use, and adolescent delinquency. However, fewer studies have examined neighborhood variation over time in rates of violence and injury. In this study, we estimate the effects of neighborhood disadvantage on cyclical and nonlinear patterns of violence in New York City from 1985 to 2000. The pattern of violence suggests a "slow epidemic," although with meaningful neighborhood differences in the onset, peak and decline of violence that vary according to neighborhood structure. Violence spreads and then contracts in a pattern similar to a contagious disease epidemic. Patterns of spread and change differ for gun violence compared to other forms of violence. The results illustrate the salience of a developmental perspective on neighborhoods, the unique conceptual meaning of gun violence, and the importance of modeling periods of decline as a unique phenomenon independent from the predictors of onset.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it