Does Fecal Occult Blood Testing Really Reduce Mortality? A Reanalysis of Systematic Review Data
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common cause of cancer mortality. A variety of CRC screening strategies are being adopted in many developed countries. Fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) is one option for screening that has the most evidence for efficacy and is also the cheapest approach. Systematic reviews suggest that FOBT is effective in reducing CRC mortality but the data on overall mortality from any cause has rarely been synthesized. METHODS: Randomized controlled trials identified by a Cochrane review of the efficacy of FOBT were reanalyzed. Trials that reported on biennial FOBT with all cause mortality assessed at similar follow-up periods were analyzed. CRC, non-CRC, and all cause mortality were evaluated using a random effects model. RESULTS: Three trials were analyzed, involving 245,217 subjects with 2,148 CRC deaths after almost 3 million patient-years follow-up. The relative risk (RR) of CRC death in the FOBT arm was 0.87 (95% CI = 0.8-0.95). The RR of non-CRC death in the FOBT group was 1.02 (95% CI = 1.00-1.04, p = 0.015). The increase in non-CRC in the FOBT group balanced the decrease in CRC mortality with no overall impact on mortality (RR of dying in the FOBT arm = 1.002, 95% CI = 0.989-1.015). CONCLUSION: The impact of FOBT in reducing mortality from any cause is uncertain and efficacy of this strategy for CRC screening needs reevaluation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it