One- and Two-Sample Bayesian Prediction Intervals Based on Type-I Hybrid Censored Data
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this article, we consider a general form for the underlying distribution and a general conjugate prior, and describe a general procedure for determining the Bayesian prediction intervals for future lifetimes based on an observed Type-I hybrid censored data. For the illustration of the developed results, the Exponential(θ) and Pareto(α, β) distributions are used as examples. One-sample Bayesian predictive survival function can not be obtained in closed-form and so Gibbs sampling procedure is used to draw Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples, which are then used to compute the approximate predictive survival function. Finally, some numerical results are presented to illustrate all the inferential results developed here.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it