Two-stage study designs combining genome-wide association studies, tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms, and exome sequencing: accuracy of genetic effect estimates
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) test for disease-trait associations and estimate effect sizes at tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), which imperfectly capture variation at causal SNPs. Sequencing studies can examine potential causal SNPs directly; however, sequencing the whole genome or exome can be prohibitively expensive. Costs can be limited by using a GWAS to detect the associated region(s) at tag SNPs followed by targeted sequencing to identify and estimate the effect size of the causal variant. Genetic effect estimates obtained from association studies can be inflated because of a form of selection bias known as the winner's curse. Conversely, estimates at tag SNPs can be attenuated compared to the causal SNP because of incomplete linkage disequilibrium. These two effects oppose each other. Analysis of rare SNPs further complicates our understanding of the winner's curse because rare SNPs are difficult to tag and analysis can involve collapsing over multiple rare variants. In two-stage analysis of Genetic Analysis Workshop 17 simulated data sets, we find that selection at the tag SNP produces upward bias in the estimate of effect at the causal SNP, even when the tag and causal SNPs are not well correlated. The bias similarly carries through to effect estimates for rare variant summary measures. Replication studies designed with sample sizes computed using biased estimates will be under-powered to detect a disease-causing variant. Accounting for bias in the original study is critical to avoid discarding disease-associated SNPs at follow up.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.326 | 0.455 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.009 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".