An Electricity Market With a Probabilistic Spinning Reserve Criterion
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper addresses the problem of reliability-constrained market-clearing in pool-based electricity markets with unit commitment. In general, probabilistic reliability criteria that implicitly set the reserve requirement are defined by the loss-of-load probability and by the expected load not served. As the computation of such metrics is complicated by their nonlinear and combinatorial nature, we introduce the notion of hybrid metrics based on the probabilities of loss-of-load due to single and double generation outages only. The reliability-constrained market-clearing problem can then be formulated as a mixed-integer linear program and solved with large-scale commercial solvers. Numerical tests with data from the IEEE Reliability Test System indicate that the new method is computationally efficient and produces market-clearing results with the desired probabilistic characteristics.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it